SPC Outlook Details

Updated UTC: Thu Jun 27 01:09:06 UTC 2024

Type: day-1

Discussion:

   SPC AC 270109

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind
   gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio
   Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and
   to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

   ...01z Update Western US...
   An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it
   emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong
   ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms
   over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization
   with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and
   moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying
   upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With
   fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk
   for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more
   hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been
   expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV.

   ...Red River Valley Vicinity...
   Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant
   outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red
   River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist
   air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg)
   beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and
   organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm
   development/organization appears probable this evening despite
   relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be
   the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint
   spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be
   possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained
   rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster
   is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds
   into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along
   the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening.

   ...Southeast US into the Northeast...
   Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of
   the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this
   evening, these clusters have shown organization with self
   propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but
   increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great
   Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the
   KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of
   diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear
   should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening.
   Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more
   hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible.

   ...Front Range...
   Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing
   from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for
   ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge
   will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively
   moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will
   likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds
   and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any
   more persistent clusters.

   ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024

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